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	<title>Comments on: Fun With Math: Burdening Society by Having Kids Too Early?</title>
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	<link>http://www.nine-moons.com/?p=550</link>
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		<title>By: Tom</title>
		<link>http://www.nine-moons.com/?p=550&#038;cpage=2#comment-16397</link>
		<dc:creator>Tom</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 13 Jun 2007 19:50:15 +0000</pubDate>
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		<description>Do we have a good control so that we know what happens without any of those kinds of measures under similar social conditions?  Could it be that fertility would be decreasing faster without those measures?

I realize that creating healthy fertility rates through government actions is complicated business.  But it&#039;s worth trying to figure out.  A lot of it probably has to do with factors in the broader social climate beyond just financial support.  I don&#039;t know if it&#039;s urbanization or materialism or declining real salaries or what that&#039;s causing us to have fewer and fewer children in the developed world, but whatever it is, it has me concerned about the long-term stability and prosperity of our society.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Do we have a good control so that we know what happens without any of those kinds of measures under similar social conditions?  Could it be that fertility would be decreasing faster without those measures?</p>
<p>I realize that creating healthy fertility rates through government actions is complicated business.  But it&#8217;s worth trying to figure out.  A lot of it probably has to do with factors in the broader social climate beyond just financial support.  I don&#8217;t know if it&#8217;s urbanization or materialism or declining real salaries or what that&#8217;s causing us to have fewer and fewer children in the developed world, but whatever it is, it has me concerned about the long-term stability and prosperity of our society.</p>
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		<title>By: ECS</title>
		<link>http://www.nine-moons.com/?p=550&#038;cpage=2#comment-16393</link>
		<dc:creator>ECS</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 13 Jun 2007 18:54:38 +0000</pubDate>
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		<description>Tom - Europeans have access to free health care, higher education, and generous family leave policies (including) paid maternity leave. Under your scenario #59, European social policies and incentives should increase the European birth rate.  Clearly, government benefits are a small (if not irrelevant) factor in choosing an optimal family size.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Tom &#8211; Europeans have access to free health care, higher education, and generous family leave policies (including) paid maternity leave. Under your scenario #59, European social policies and incentives should increase the European birth rate.  Clearly, government benefits are a small (if not irrelevant) factor in choosing an optimal family size.</p>
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		<title>By: Tom</title>
		<link>http://www.nine-moons.com/?p=550&#038;cpage=2#comment-16376</link>
		<dc:creator>Tom</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 13 Jun 2007 14:59:35 +0000</pubDate>
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		<description>Moving away from moralizing about the hypothetical situations presented (for the record, I don&#039;t know anybody who has taken either path), and looking at it from the perspective of a citizen concerned about the long-term health of our economy and government, I would say that both family planning models are great.  They both end up producing productive citizens and generating a lot of government revenue over the long run.  However, looking at all the problems with population decline in Europe, all else being equal, I would prefer that people have more kids sooner if they can do so without incurring excessive costs.  (Again, this doesn&#039;t mean that I would judge the Smugs or Freeloaders negatively for their personal decisions, nor does it mean that everyone should have as many kids as they can as soon as they can; I&#039;m talking large-scale, long-term here.)  With the long run in mind, I would also support the government taking reasonable measures to facilitate (or at least mitigate the financial risk of) bearing children early in marriage, just like I would support reasonable measures that facilitate getting advanced degrees before one becomes financially secure.  I would even support measures that mitigate the financial risk of bearing children early in marriage &lt;em&gt;while&lt;/em&gt; getting an advanced degree (gasp!) at the same time.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Moving away from moralizing about the hypothetical situations presented (for the record, I don&#8217;t know anybody who has taken either path), and looking at it from the perspective of a citizen concerned about the long-term health of our economy and government, I would say that both family planning models are great.  They both end up producing productive citizens and generating a lot of government revenue over the long run.  However, looking at all the problems with population decline in Europe, all else being equal, I would prefer that people have more kids sooner if they can do so without incurring excessive costs.  (Again, this doesn&#8217;t mean that I would judge the Smugs or Freeloaders negatively for their personal decisions, nor does it mean that everyone should have as many kids as they can as soon as they can; I&#8217;m talking large-scale, long-term here.)  With the long run in mind, I would also support the government taking reasonable measures to facilitate (or at least mitigate the financial risk of) bearing children early in marriage, just like I would support reasonable measures that facilitate getting advanced degrees before one becomes financially secure.  I would even support measures that mitigate the financial risk of bearing children early in marriage <em>while</em> getting an advanced degree (gasp!) at the same time.</p>
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		<title>By: Seth R.</title>
		<link>http://www.nine-moons.com/?p=550&#038;cpage=2#comment-16375</link>
		<dc:creator>Seth R.</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 13 Jun 2007 14:09:51 +0000</pubDate>
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		<description>&lt;em&gt;&quot;The Smugs are sacrificing six years of joy they might experience from having children earlier. The Freeloaders are not making an equivalent sacrafice.&quot;&lt;/em&gt;

endless, I don&#039;t know about you, but I consider early childrearing to carry its own sacrifices. There&#039;s a reason why is isn&#039;t very fashionable anymore.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><em>&#8220;The Smugs are sacrificing six years of joy they might experience from having children earlier. The Freeloaders are not making an equivalent sacrafice.&#8221;</em></p>
<p>endless, I don&#8217;t know about you, but I consider early childrearing to carry its own sacrifices. There&#8217;s a reason why is isn&#8217;t very fashionable anymore.</p>
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		<title>By: Devyn S</title>
		<link>http://www.nine-moons.com/?p=550&#038;cpage=2#comment-16369</link>
		<dc:creator>Devyn S</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 13 Jun 2007 12:20:16 +0000</pubDate>
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		<description>We can run scenarios until the cows come home, but the math that matters is that the Freeloaders are taking from the Government, while the Smugs are not in the early years, but over time it equals out to some extent IF you include the children.  For me, I don&#039;t care what happens with the next generation - my situation is very different from my parents.  Endless makes some great points, but in the end, the Smugs will justify their position and decisions as will the Freeloaders.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>We can run scenarios until the cows come home, but the math that matters is that the Freeloaders are taking from the Government, while the Smugs are not in the early years, but over time it equals out to some extent IF you include the children.  For me, I don&#8217;t care what happens with the next generation &#8211; my situation is very different from my parents.  Endless makes some great points, but in the end, the Smugs will justify their position and decisions as will the Freeloaders.</p>
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		<title>By: Tom</title>
		<link>http://www.nine-moons.com/?p=550&#038;cpage=2#comment-16334</link>
		<dc:creator>Tom</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 12 Jun 2007 21:41:51 +0000</pubDate>
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		<description>Endless,
Both families are assets to society.  They can benefit society more or less depending on the choices they make.  I already acknowledged that it could technically be said that, using your numbers, the Freeloaders&#039; decision &quot;burdens&quot; society to the tune of $10k over 60 years.  But neither can reasonably be considered a burden to society over the long run.

&lt;em&gt;With respect to the Smugs and the Freeloaders it becomes readily apparent that under the most reasonable scenarios the Freeloaders are making a sub-optimal choice for society and therefore their decision is unethical.&lt;/em&gt;

I must have missed where this was determined.  You called it a wash.  And that was assuming that the Freeloaders receive $25k per year in government assistance.  But if they don&#039;t receive a PV of $107k in government assistance more than the Smugs, then their decision is &quot;more optimal&quot; and, by your definition, the Smugs&#039; decision to put off childbirth burdens society and they&#039;re the unethical ones.

I think it&#039;s best not to make moral judgments based on how a given choice affects the NPV of government receipts over the long run.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Endless,<br />
Both families are assets to society.  They can benefit society more or less depending on the choices they make.  I already acknowledged that it could technically be said that, using your numbers, the Freeloaders&#8217; decision &#8220;burdens&#8221; society to the tune of $10k over 60 years.  But neither can reasonably be considered a burden to society over the long run.</p>
<p><em>With respect to the Smugs and the Freeloaders it becomes readily apparent that under the most reasonable scenarios the Freeloaders are making a sub-optimal choice for society and therefore their decision is unethical.</em></p>
<p>I must have missed where this was determined.  You called it a wash.  And that was assuming that the Freeloaders receive $25k per year in government assistance.  But if they don&#8217;t receive a PV of $107k in government assistance more than the Smugs, then their decision is &#8220;more optimal&#8221; and, by your definition, the Smugs&#8217; decision to put off childbirth burdens society and they&#8217;re the unethical ones.</p>
<p>I think it&#8217;s best not to make moral judgments based on how a given choice affects the NPV of government receipts over the long run.</p>
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		<title>By: bbell</title>
		<link>http://www.nine-moons.com/?p=550&#038;cpage=2#comment-16328</link>
		<dc:creator>bbell</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 12 Jun 2007 20:43:57 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.nine-moons.com/2007/06/11/fun-with-math-burdening-society-by-having-kids-too-early/#comment-16328</guid>
		<description>Endless,

I think it depends on what year and what GA on the delay family question.  Its pretty fair to say that there is a body of GA quotes that would back up my post.  One big question is how current is the advice......... 

I personally think that things are more nuanced then my post suggested.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Endless,</p>
<p>I think it depends on what year and what GA on the delay family question.  Its pretty fair to say that there is a body of GA quotes that would back up my post.  One big question is how current is the advice&#8230;&#8230;&#8230; </p>
<p>I personally think that things are more nuanced then my post suggested.</p>
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		<title>By: endlessnegotiation</title>
		<link>http://www.nine-moons.com/?p=550&#038;cpage=2#comment-16327</link>
		<dc:creator>endlessnegotiation</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 12 Jun 2007 20:29:15 +0000</pubDate>
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		<description>Tom:

The problem is that your definition of &quot;burden&quot; is meaningless.  The burden arises when choices we make result in suboptimal outcomes.  With respect to the Smugs and the Freeloaders it becomes readily apparent that under the most reasonable scenarios the Freeloaders are making a sub-optimal choice for society and therefore their decision is unethical.  To tie that reasoning back to the Gospel, we&#039;re taught that we will be judged based on our capacity for growth.  We&#039;re also taught that not everyone comes to earth with the same capacity.  If we knowingly make suboptimal decisions here on earth then we&#039;ll be judged accordingly.

Further you quip, &quot;They have both temporarily sacrificed pursuing one good for the sake of another good.&quot;  Actually, that statement is completely misleading unless you attribute moral value to the absolute accumulation of wealth.  The Smugs are sacrificing six years of joy they might experience from having children earlier.  The Freeloaders are not making an equivalent sacrafice.  In fact they are hoisting a sacrafice onto the rest of society by making a suboptimal decision.  Where is it written that it is moral to force others to bear your own burdens?

bbell:

I think you set up a false dichotomy my eliminating a vital component of the counsel to avoid delaying reproduction after marriage.  I think the counsel falls more in line with warning couples not to unnecessarily delay having children.  I think the ability to afford them on one&#039;s own is a necessary condition to making the decision to reproduce.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Tom:</p>
<p>The problem is that your definition of &#8220;burden&#8221; is meaningless.  The burden arises when choices we make result in suboptimal outcomes.  With respect to the Smugs and the Freeloaders it becomes readily apparent that under the most reasonable scenarios the Freeloaders are making a sub-optimal choice for society and therefore their decision is unethical.  To tie that reasoning back to the Gospel, we&#8217;re taught that we will be judged based on our capacity for growth.  We&#8217;re also taught that not everyone comes to earth with the same capacity.  If we knowingly make suboptimal decisions here on earth then we&#8217;ll be judged accordingly.</p>
<p>Further you quip, &#8220;They have both temporarily sacrificed pursuing one good for the sake of another good.&#8221;  Actually, that statement is completely misleading unless you attribute moral value to the absolute accumulation of wealth.  The Smugs are sacrificing six years of joy they might experience from having children earlier.  The Freeloaders are not making an equivalent sacrafice.  In fact they are hoisting a sacrafice onto the rest of society by making a suboptimal decision.  Where is it written that it is moral to force others to bear your own burdens?</p>
<p>bbell:</p>
<p>I think you set up a false dichotomy my eliminating a vital component of the counsel to avoid delaying reproduction after marriage.  I think the counsel falls more in line with warning couples not to unnecessarily delay having children.  I think the ability to afford them on one&#8217;s own is a necessary condition to making the decision to reproduce.</p>
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		<title>By: ECS</title>
		<link>http://www.nine-moons.com/?p=550&#038;cpage=2#comment-16321</link>
		<dc:creator>ECS</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 12 Jun 2007 19:46:07 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.nine-moons.com/2007/06/11/fun-with-math-burdening-society-by-having-kids-too-early/#comment-16321</guid>
		<description>(Medicaid - not Medicare)</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>(Medicaid &#8211; not Medicare)</p>
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		<title>By: ECS</title>
		<link>http://www.nine-moons.com/?p=550&#038;cpage=2#comment-16318</link>
		<dc:creator>ECS</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 12 Jun 2007 19:26:56 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.nine-moons.com/2007/06/11/fun-with-math-burdening-society-by-having-kids-too-early/#comment-16318</guid>
		<description>&lt;blockquote&gt;only way this fits into that debate is if one judges the Freeloaders as immoral on the basis that they burden society.&lt;/blockquote&gt;

A reasonable argument could be made, however, that &quot;burden society&quot; includes driving up the costs of WIC and Medicare.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<blockquote><p>only way this fits into that debate is if one judges the Freeloaders as immoral on the basis that they burden society.</p></blockquote>
<p>A reasonable argument could be made, however, that &#8220;burden society&#8221; includes driving up the costs of WIC and Medicare.</p>
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