Comments on: The Numbers Game http://www.nine-moons.com/?p=733 Sat, 08 Jun 2013 07:33:39 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.1.1 By: bbell http://www.nine-moons.com/?p=733&cpage=1#comment-38893 bbell Wed, 23 Jan 2008 17:21:44 +0000 http://www.nine-moons.com/2008/01/17/the-numbers-game/#comment-38893 Meg, I know what you are getting at and it makes sense from a theory perspective. When you look at the increase in buildings, units, and other measurable indicators it looks like to me and most observers that there is a annual increase of about 2% in LDS growth which to be honest is the fastest rate of any church in the US over a million members. That being said a 2% growth rate in the US is pretty slow by LDS historical standards. I personally believe that organized religion is in the decline long term in the US. As a result we as LDS have seen a slowdown in our growth rates especially when combined with lower birth rates. The key to our long term situation to me is clearly in the US. Without the excess tithing dollars and the missionaries and senior leadership for the rest of the world we would be in trouble The international situation is most troubling to me. A new strategy is clearly needed. I would base my new strategy on what worked in Samoa and Tonga. IE church institutions like high schools and colleges Meg,

I know what you are getting at and it makes sense from a theory perspective. When you look at the increase in buildings, units, and other measurable indicators it looks like to me and most observers that there is a annual increase of about 2% in LDS growth which to be honest is the fastest rate of any church in the US over a million members. That being said a 2% growth rate in the US is pretty slow by LDS historical standards.

I personally believe that organized religion is in the decline long term in the US. As a result we as LDS have seen a slowdown in our growth rates especially when combined with lower birth rates. The key to our long term situation to me is clearly in the US. Without the excess tithing dollars and the missionaries and senior leadership for the rest of the world we would be in trouble

The international situation is most troubling to me. A new strategy is clearly needed. I would base my new strategy on what worked in Samoa and Tonga. IE church institutions like high schools and colleges

]]> By: Meg http://www.nine-moons.com/?p=733&cpage=1#comment-38797 Meg Wed, 23 Jan 2008 00:11:55 +0000 http://www.nine-moons.com/2008/01/17/the-numbers-game/#comment-38797 er, one would be built... er, one would be built…

]]> By: Meg http://www.nine-moons.com/?p=733&cpage=1#comment-38796 Meg Wed, 23 Jan 2008 00:05:28 +0000 http://www.nine-moons.com/2008/01/17/the-numbers-game/#comment-38796 bbell - I don't know that you quite understood what I was getting at. I'm aware that old buildings are sometimes sold, or torn down. That doesn't have anything to do with the point that if buildings that are IN USE are not being used at the same rate as they were previously (for example, same number of wards but smaller ward size, or two wards instead of three), then more buildings is not indicative of growth. If real numbers help... say there are 3000 members that meet in 3 buildings in an large area. Over time, the area experiences a lot of moveouts, and now, the three buildings are still in use, but only 2,000 members are meeting in wards across those three buildings. All of them are still fully in use, and to tear one down would mean that some members would have to travel a great distance to get to church. However, if those thousand extra memebers were to move elsewhere and create a need for a new building, then one one be built, even though there aren't any new members. bbell – I don’t know that you quite understood what I was getting at. I’m aware that old buildings are sometimes sold, or torn down. That doesn’t have anything to do with the point that if buildings that are IN USE are not being used at the same rate as they were previously (for example, same number of wards but smaller ward size, or two wards instead of three), then more buildings is not indicative of growth.

If real numbers help… say there are 3000 members that meet in 3 buildings in an large area. Over time, the area experiences a lot of moveouts, and now, the three buildings are still in use, but only 2,000 members are meeting in wards across those three buildings. All of them are still fully in use, and to tear one down would mean that some members would have to travel a great distance to get to church. However, if those thousand extra memebers were to move elsewhere and create a need for a new building, then one one be built, even though there aren’t any new members.

]]> By: Sam Kitterman http://www.nine-moons.com/?p=733&cpage=1#comment-38755 Sam Kitterman Tue, 22 Jan 2008 19:43:39 +0000 http://www.nine-moons.com/2008/01/17/the-numbers-game/#comment-38755 Although building of new chapels may be indicatory of growth, its significance should be discounted to some degree. Our chapel was built approximately 8 years ago. Since then our particular ward's population has declined to a point where we have perhaps 3 active AP members, YM/YW numbers are likewise small and we are not experiencing growth either from move-ins (more move-outs) or baptisms of converts vs. existing families. Given same new chapels do not reflect (to me) what active membership is within a few years of the chapel being completed and in use. Sam Kitterman Jr. Although building of new chapels may be indicatory of growth, its significance should be discounted to some degree. Our chapel was built approximately 8 years ago. Since then our particular ward’s population has declined to a point where we have perhaps 3 active AP members, YM/YW numbers are likewise small and we are not experiencing growth either from move-ins (more move-outs) or baptisms of converts vs. existing families.

Given same new chapels do not reflect (to me) what active membership is within a few years of the chapel being completed and in use.

Sam Kitterman Jr.

]]> By: Bradley Ross http://www.nine-moons.com/?p=733&cpage=1#comment-38534 Bradley Ross Mon, 21 Jan 2008 05:33:10 +0000 http://www.nine-moons.com/2008/01/17/the-numbers-game/#comment-38534 David Stewart puts together some really interesting numbers in his book, <a href="http://cumorah.com/lawoftheharvest.html" rel="nofollow">The Law of the Harvest</a> which is available online. He points out that congratulating ourselves for our growth can lead to complacency in missionary work. Thus, he points out some really hard numbers. For example, he shows how other denominations (like Jehovah's Witnesses or Seventh Day Adventists) are doing better in missionary work than Mormons are. David Stewart puts together some really interesting numbers in his book, The Law of the Harvest which is available online. He points out that congratulating ourselves for our growth can lead to complacency in missionary work. Thus, he points out some really hard numbers. For example, he shows how other denominations (like Jehovah’s Witnesses or Seventh Day Adventists) are doing better in missionary work than Mormons are.

]]> By: BrianJ http://www.nine-moons.com/?p=733&cpage=1#comment-38483 BrianJ Sun, 20 Jan 2008 20:35:49 +0000 http://www.nine-moons.com/2008/01/17/the-numbers-game/#comment-38483 Seth, interesting post. Thanks for posting it. Seth, interesting post. Thanks for posting it.

]]> By: Mark D. http://www.nine-moons.com/?p=733&cpage=1#comment-38323 Mark D. Sat, 19 Jan 2008 01:09:44 +0000 http://www.nine-moons.com/2008/01/17/the-numbers-game/#comment-38323 </blockquote> Terminating the block quote... Terminating the block quote…

]]> By: bbell http://www.nine-moons.com/?p=733&cpage=1#comment-38305 bbell Fri, 18 Jan 2008 21:14:27 +0000 http://www.nine-moons.com/2008/01/17/the-numbers-game/#comment-38305 Here is an example of the religious situation in Europe http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Church_of_Sweden http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Church_of_Denmark 2-5% activity Here is an example of the religious situation in Europe

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Church_of_Sweden

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Church_of_Denmark

2-5% activity

]]> By: Sam B. http://www.nine-moons.com/?p=733&cpage=1#comment-38304 Sam B. Fri, 18 Jan 2008 20:41:57 +0000 http://www.nine-moons.com/2008/01/17/the-numbers-game/#comment-38304 bbell, Thanks. bbell,
Thanks.

]]> By: bbell http://www.nine-moons.com/?p=733&cpage=1#comment-38298 bbell Fri, 18 Jan 2008 20:15:28 +0000 http://www.nine-moons.com/2008/01/17/the-numbers-game/#comment-38298 Sam, I do not have the links handy. I am sure I could given enough time. Some of the data can be found in the links in the original post. The data on the international situation come from a academic study from Wilfried at T&S. I think they are pretty indisputable and replicated more then once. Current activity rates come from similar type recent acedemic studies and have been broadly replicated in multiple studies. I averaged them cause they range from 40-50% The data on historical activity rates comes from a paper published either at BYU or one of the Utah historical publications. Child retention rates come from a BYU study. Kevin Barney uses the same data when discussing the topic Sam,

I do not have the links handy. I am sure I could given enough time. Some of the data can be found in the links in the original post.

The data on the international situation come from a academic study from Wilfried at T&S. I think they are pretty indisputable and replicated more then once.

Current activity rates come from similar type recent acedemic studies and have been broadly replicated in multiple studies. I averaged them cause they range from 40-50%

The data on historical activity rates comes from a paper published either at BYU or one of the Utah historical publications.

Child retention rates come from a BYU study. Kevin Barney uses the same data when discussing the topic

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